2012 QB review, early 2013 rankings
Eric Karabell
Quarterbacks were chosen with the first two selections in last summer's NFL draft, and each figured to earn starting nods without delay, so perhaps it was easy to see how one of the stories of the 2012 fantasy season would be the rookie signal-callers. After all, top pick Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts finished among the top 10 quarterbacks in standard season scoring, and Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins, second on draft day, might have topped everyone had he not been injured.
In addition, Seattle Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson rocked after September and finished just a shade outside the top 10, and second-year signal-caller Colin Kaepernick joined him in post-October relevance. It's not like all older fellows struggled, either, as Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos and seamlessly returned to past glory, finishing tied with Griffin in season scoring. Thirty-somethings Drew Brees and Tom Brady didn't disappoint. Old and young enjoyed productive campaigns.
<offer></offer>Frankly, there was no shortage of helpful quarterback candidates for standard leagues and even for deeper formats. In 2011, the top fellows performed better, with three quarterbacks exceeding 5,000 passing yards and four reaching 352 standard fantasy points. In 2012, Brees was the only one to hit 5,000 passing yards and he led the position in scoring with 337 points. Still, check the depth. The No. 10 fantasy quarterback in the 2011 season was, believe it or not, New York Jets attention-getter Mark Sanchez with 227 fantasy points. This season those same 227 points earned Baltimore Ravens leader Joe Flacco a No. 14 ranking, while Detroit Lions attempts machine Matthew Stafford was 10th with 263 points. Depth is indeed a good thing.
So, with an eye toward the future, let's recap and preview the NFL's signature position -- the quarterback -- for fantasy purposes.
Quarterback MVP: Brees led all of fantasy in scoring regardless of position, a shade ahead of Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but each was a first-round pick on draft day. Griffin, however, followed in the footsteps of the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton from the year prior -- rookie and runner -- and electrified the fantasy world, doing so as a fifth-rounder. No quarterback rushed for more yards, and Griffin's 27 total touchdowns to five interceptions was outstanding. Consider Brees and Matt Ryan each had five interceptions in one game! Griffin gets the fantasy quarterback MVP nod over Seattle's Wilson, an afterthought fantasy 14th-rounder who was a top-five scorer from Week 6 on.
Quarterback LVP: Two of the top 10 quarterbacks from fantasy draft day really disappointed, but with Michael Vick, you should have known well in advance the risk of injury derailing his value. Vick played well enough in the first half of the season before a concussion and team goals shut him down for two months. With Eli Manning of the Super Bowl champion New York Giants, however, he tormented fantasy owners from Week 6 on. If you had played this Manning the first five weeks and Wilson after that, it would have been a top-five overall quarterback. Alas, Manning finished 15th among quarterbacks in scoring, edging Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams, hardly a fantasy hero himself. In a five-game stretch starting with Week 6, the younger Manning averaged a mere seven fantasy points per game, taking his teams down with him. After rebounding with quality performances in Weeks 12-14, those who regained trust in Eli during the fantasy playoffs were rewarded with two fantasy points in Week 15 and 10 the week after. Yuck.
[h=3]My top 20 for 2013[/h]First tier (early-to-mid Round 2)
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Second tier (late Round 2)
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
5. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Third tier (Round 3)
6. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
8. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
9. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Fourth tier (Round 4)
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
11. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
12. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
13. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Fifth tier (Round 5-7)
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
15. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
16. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles*
18. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
19. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
20. Tim Tebow, New York Jets*
Just missed: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers; Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders; Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams; Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears; Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks*
* Denotes likely to start 2013 season with new team
Biggest surprises: Obviously the play of the top rookies, especially Wilson, has to lead this list, along with what Peyton Manning accomplished. As with Luck, Griffin and Wilson, Manning didn't throw an NFL pass last season. There were other surprises, like Kaepernick replacing an injured Alex Smith in San Francisco, keeping the job and thriving with double-digits in fantasy every single week. However, a bigger surprise is likely the sad state of affairs with the New York Jets burying Tim Tebow so badly that he threw eight times all season and saw sporadic use in the Wildcat formation, failing to score a touchdown. In 2011, Tebow averaged 17 fantasy points per game (easily in the top 10 in that span) over 11 weeks. In 2012, he produced all of seven fantasy points, outside the top 50 for quarterbacks. Whether you're a Tebow fan or not, and he elicits strong feelings in both directions, it was hard to believe his fantasy floor was this low. It shouldn't be in 2013.
Biggest misconception: Well, other than the fact that rookies supposedly can't help fantasy owners, how about the continued dislike for Dallas Cowboys producer Tony Romo? Sure, he didn't lead his team to the playoffs, where he surely would have been blamed had the team lost, but only eight players, regardless of position, scored more fantasy points. Romo outperforms his fantasy draft-day rank every season. He's not Brees, Brady or Rodgers, but Romo was a strong fifth-round pick yet again. Perhaps similarly, Cincinnati Bengals leader Andy Dalton seems to be heading down this beleaguered path. He's 0-2 in playoff games and is often scorned by fantasy owners, but he finished 12th in quarterback scoring in 2012, well above his No. 19 draft-day rank.
Youngster to watch: Perhaps someone will come along to really debunk this myth -- like the Minnesota Vikings' Joe Webb if he needed to play regularly -- but running quarterbacks force you to consider them in fantasy. Even when they have poor throwing games, the rushing yards and potential for rushing scores is intriguing. Kaepernick forced the 49ers to play him. Wilson beat out Matt Flynn in August thanks in part to his mobility. Vick will always be worth considering. But check out the Oakland Raiders and Terrelle Pryor. As of now, Carson Palmer is still a Raider, but that could change after Pryor managed 22 fantasy points in Week 17 at San Diego on two passing scores and one running. The Ohio State product certainly has size and speed to matter.
Veteran to watch: Seattle backup Flynn was featured in this exact space a year ago, and the same caveats apply even after he threw only one more pass than Tebow did this past season. Do we know if Flynn can play? Not really, despite the six-touchdown performance from Week 17 of the 2011 season that made him a very rich man. Contracts don't always equal success. However, several teams need a starting quarterback, from Philly to Kansas City and Arizona, and it's silly to dismiss Flynn's potential until he actually gets a chance.
Keeper notes: Running backs and top wide receivers remain better keepers than quarterbacks, especially after the Brees/Brady/Rodgers area. For one, the quarterback position is deep, and in the fantasy world you can play only one QB at a time, whereas three and sometimes four running backs or wide receivers are needed for active duty. Two, it's not terribly difficult, in a standard league, to draft a reasonable quarterback, though one runs the risk of an Eli Manning-type roller coaster or a Ben Roethlisberger injury. It's worth noting that a few of the top quarterbacks are getting up there in years, like Brees and Peyton Manning, but fantasy owners need not worry about their 2016 quarterback now.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Three quarterbacks infiltrated the first round of 2012 drafts, but don't look for a repeat performance. In fact, my highest-ranked quarterback as of now chimes in at No. 15. This is, and has always been, a position fantasy owners can (and should) wait on in drafts, filling the tougher running back and wide receiver slots first. Still, who is the top quarterback? The case can be made for Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Peyton Manning, as well as Griffin and probably Newton. Griffin is clearly a risk with the knee injury suffered in December and exacerbated in the playoff loss (as of this writing the severity had not been announced). Regardless, we may need to assume Griffin is not a 16-game-per-season player, much like Vick.
As usual, I'll be waiting on quarterback in standard leagues, more than happy to fill other spots and choose any of the Tier 3 or 4 quarterbacks that fall out of the top 10, perhaps more than one. There's nothing wrong with a Romo/Roethlisberger pairing, or even Dalton/Eli Manning, for example. Numerous quarterbacks that are worthy of starting for fantasy rosters will slide in drafts, so scoop up a few and play matchups. Also, every season there will be surprises, but don't assume the same rookie success is duplicated in 2013 (Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, perhaps?) and with so many quarterbacks safe and reliable, there's little reason to choose a QB like Brandon Weeden late.
Five noteworthy quarterback stats of 2012
1. Brees is the only quarterback to throw for at least 4,000 passing yards each of the past three seasons. He also owns half of the six 5,000-yard seasons in league history and two of the nine seasons with 40 touchdown passes. I like him again in 2013.
2. Stafford fell from fifth to 10th in QB scoring, but it wasn't for a lack of trying; he shattered the league mark for passing attempts with 727. His 663 attempts in 2011 rank fifth. And only Brees threw for more yards this season.
3. A season after four quarterbacks tossed 20 or more interceptions (Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Freeman and, of course, Rex Grossman), the 2012 leaders were Brees and Romo with 19. It's the first time since 1992 that nobody threw 20 interceptions, and it's a reminder that elite passers can overcome turnovers for fantasy value, since Brees still finished No. 1.
4. Griffin and Newton rushed for 826 and 741 yards, respectively, more than the following running backs chosen among the top 20 in ESPN average live drafts: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. Griffin also outrushed Michael Turner.
5. Then again, myriad quarterbacks were running around in 2012: Eight quarterbacks, including rookies Griffin, Luck and Wilson, rushed for four or more touchdowns. In 2011, only four quarterbacks -- Newton, Sanchez, Tebow and Freeman -- did so. With rushing touchdowns worth more than passing touchdowns in ESPN standard formats, it's a difference maker when a quarterback is willing to run.
Coming soon, running backs and wide receivers! Good luck in your playoff pools!
Eric Karabell
Quarterbacks were chosen with the first two selections in last summer's NFL draft, and each figured to earn starting nods without delay, so perhaps it was easy to see how one of the stories of the 2012 fantasy season would be the rookie signal-callers. After all, top pick Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts finished among the top 10 quarterbacks in standard season scoring, and Robert Griffin III of the Washington Redskins, second on draft day, might have topped everyone had he not been injured.
In addition, Seattle Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson rocked after September and finished just a shade outside the top 10, and second-year signal-caller Colin Kaepernick joined him in post-October relevance. It's not like all older fellows struggled, either, as Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos and seamlessly returned to past glory, finishing tied with Griffin in season scoring. Thirty-somethings Drew Brees and Tom Brady didn't disappoint. Old and young enjoyed productive campaigns.
<offer></offer>Frankly, there was no shortage of helpful quarterback candidates for standard leagues and even for deeper formats. In 2011, the top fellows performed better, with three quarterbacks exceeding 5,000 passing yards and four reaching 352 standard fantasy points. In 2012, Brees was the only one to hit 5,000 passing yards and he led the position in scoring with 337 points. Still, check the depth. The No. 10 fantasy quarterback in the 2011 season was, believe it or not, New York Jets attention-getter Mark Sanchez with 227 fantasy points. This season those same 227 points earned Baltimore Ravens leader Joe Flacco a No. 14 ranking, while Detroit Lions attempts machine Matthew Stafford was 10th with 263 points. Depth is indeed a good thing.
So, with an eye toward the future, let's recap and preview the NFL's signature position -- the quarterback -- for fantasy purposes.
Quarterback MVP: Brees led all of fantasy in scoring regardless of position, a shade ahead of Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but each was a first-round pick on draft day. Griffin, however, followed in the footsteps of the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newton from the year prior -- rookie and runner -- and electrified the fantasy world, doing so as a fifth-rounder. No quarterback rushed for more yards, and Griffin's 27 total touchdowns to five interceptions was outstanding. Consider Brees and Matt Ryan each had five interceptions in one game! Griffin gets the fantasy quarterback MVP nod over Seattle's Wilson, an afterthought fantasy 14th-rounder who was a top-five scorer from Week 6 on.
Quarterback LVP: Two of the top 10 quarterbacks from fantasy draft day really disappointed, but with Michael Vick, you should have known well in advance the risk of injury derailing his value. Vick played well enough in the first half of the season before a concussion and team goals shut him down for two months. With Eli Manning of the Super Bowl champion New York Giants, however, he tormented fantasy owners from Week 6 on. If you had played this Manning the first five weeks and Wilson after that, it would have been a top-five overall quarterback. Alas, Manning finished 15th among quarterbacks in scoring, edging Sam Bradford of the St. Louis Rams, hardly a fantasy hero himself. In a five-game stretch starting with Week 6, the younger Manning averaged a mere seven fantasy points per game, taking his teams down with him. After rebounding with quality performances in Weeks 12-14, those who regained trust in Eli during the fantasy playoffs were rewarded with two fantasy points in Week 15 and 10 the week after. Yuck.
[h=3]My top 20 for 2013[/h]First tier (early-to-mid Round 2)
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Second tier (late Round 2)
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
5. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Third tier (Round 3)
6. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
7. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
8. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
9. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Fourth tier (Round 4)
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
11. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
12. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
13. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Fifth tier (Round 5-7)
14. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
15. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
16. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles*
18. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
19. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
20. Tim Tebow, New York Jets*
Just missed: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers; Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders; Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams; Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears; Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks*
* Denotes likely to start 2013 season with new team
Biggest surprises: Obviously the play of the top rookies, especially Wilson, has to lead this list, along with what Peyton Manning accomplished. As with Luck, Griffin and Wilson, Manning didn't throw an NFL pass last season. There were other surprises, like Kaepernick replacing an injured Alex Smith in San Francisco, keeping the job and thriving with double-digits in fantasy every single week. However, a bigger surprise is likely the sad state of affairs with the New York Jets burying Tim Tebow so badly that he threw eight times all season and saw sporadic use in the Wildcat formation, failing to score a touchdown. In 2011, Tebow averaged 17 fantasy points per game (easily in the top 10 in that span) over 11 weeks. In 2012, he produced all of seven fantasy points, outside the top 50 for quarterbacks. Whether you're a Tebow fan or not, and he elicits strong feelings in both directions, it was hard to believe his fantasy floor was this low. It shouldn't be in 2013.
Biggest misconception: Well, other than the fact that rookies supposedly can't help fantasy owners, how about the continued dislike for Dallas Cowboys producer Tony Romo? Sure, he didn't lead his team to the playoffs, where he surely would have been blamed had the team lost, but only eight players, regardless of position, scored more fantasy points. Romo outperforms his fantasy draft-day rank every season. He's not Brees, Brady or Rodgers, but Romo was a strong fifth-round pick yet again. Perhaps similarly, Cincinnati Bengals leader Andy Dalton seems to be heading down this beleaguered path. He's 0-2 in playoff games and is often scorned by fantasy owners, but he finished 12th in quarterback scoring in 2012, well above his No. 19 draft-day rank.
Youngster to watch: Perhaps someone will come along to really debunk this myth -- like the Minnesota Vikings' Joe Webb if he needed to play regularly -- but running quarterbacks force you to consider them in fantasy. Even when they have poor throwing games, the rushing yards and potential for rushing scores is intriguing. Kaepernick forced the 49ers to play him. Wilson beat out Matt Flynn in August thanks in part to his mobility. Vick will always be worth considering. But check out the Oakland Raiders and Terrelle Pryor. As of now, Carson Palmer is still a Raider, but that could change after Pryor managed 22 fantasy points in Week 17 at San Diego on two passing scores and one running. The Ohio State product certainly has size and speed to matter.
Veteran to watch: Seattle backup Flynn was featured in this exact space a year ago, and the same caveats apply even after he threw only one more pass than Tebow did this past season. Do we know if Flynn can play? Not really, despite the six-touchdown performance from Week 17 of the 2011 season that made him a very rich man. Contracts don't always equal success. However, several teams need a starting quarterback, from Philly to Kansas City and Arizona, and it's silly to dismiss Flynn's potential until he actually gets a chance.
Keeper notes: Running backs and top wide receivers remain better keepers than quarterbacks, especially after the Brees/Brady/Rodgers area. For one, the quarterback position is deep, and in the fantasy world you can play only one QB at a time, whereas three and sometimes four running backs or wide receivers are needed for active duty. Two, it's not terribly difficult, in a standard league, to draft a reasonable quarterback, though one runs the risk of an Eli Manning-type roller coaster or a Ben Roethlisberger injury. It's worth noting that a few of the top quarterbacks are getting up there in years, like Brees and Peyton Manning, but fantasy owners need not worry about their 2016 quarterback now.
What to watch in 2013 drafts: Three quarterbacks infiltrated the first round of 2012 drafts, but don't look for a repeat performance. In fact, my highest-ranked quarterback as of now chimes in at No. 15. This is, and has always been, a position fantasy owners can (and should) wait on in drafts, filling the tougher running back and wide receiver slots first. Still, who is the top quarterback? The case can be made for Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Peyton Manning, as well as Griffin and probably Newton. Griffin is clearly a risk with the knee injury suffered in December and exacerbated in the playoff loss (as of this writing the severity had not been announced). Regardless, we may need to assume Griffin is not a 16-game-per-season player, much like Vick.
As usual, I'll be waiting on quarterback in standard leagues, more than happy to fill other spots and choose any of the Tier 3 or 4 quarterbacks that fall out of the top 10, perhaps more than one. There's nothing wrong with a Romo/Roethlisberger pairing, or even Dalton/Eli Manning, for example. Numerous quarterbacks that are worthy of starting for fantasy rosters will slide in drafts, so scoop up a few and play matchups. Also, every season there will be surprises, but don't assume the same rookie success is duplicated in 2013 (Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, perhaps?) and with so many quarterbacks safe and reliable, there's little reason to choose a QB like Brandon Weeden late.
Five noteworthy quarterback stats of 2012
1. Brees is the only quarterback to throw for at least 4,000 passing yards each of the past three seasons. He also owns half of the six 5,000-yard seasons in league history and two of the nine seasons with 40 touchdown passes. I like him again in 2013.
2. Stafford fell from fifth to 10th in QB scoring, but it wasn't for a lack of trying; he shattered the league mark for passing attempts with 727. His 663 attempts in 2011 rank fifth. And only Brees threw for more yards this season.
3. A season after four quarterbacks tossed 20 or more interceptions (Philip Rivers, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Freeman and, of course, Rex Grossman), the 2012 leaders were Brees and Romo with 19. It's the first time since 1992 that nobody threw 20 interceptions, and it's a reminder that elite passers can overcome turnovers for fantasy value, since Brees still finished No. 1.
4. Griffin and Newton rushed for 826 and 741 yards, respectively, more than the following running backs chosen among the top 20 in ESPN average live drafts: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Fred Jackson and Darren Sproles. Griffin also outrushed Michael Turner.
5. Then again, myriad quarterbacks were running around in 2012: Eight quarterbacks, including rookies Griffin, Luck and Wilson, rushed for four or more touchdowns. In 2011, only four quarterbacks -- Newton, Sanchez, Tebow and Freeman -- did so. With rushing touchdowns worth more than passing touchdowns in ESPN standard formats, it's a difference maker when a quarterback is willing to run.
Coming soon, running backs and wide receivers! Good luck in your playoff pools!
